Democratic Delegate Countdown
by Igor Derysh

The Campaign:

With 40 states having already held nominating contests, the Democrats aren't any closer to selecting a nominee than they were four months ago before a single ballot was cast. The Republicans, meanwhile, have chosen John McCain as their nominee, allowing him a huge head start in the general election campaign.

Ten more states are awaiting their contests, including Michigan's redo primary, which is likely to happen in June, and another possible redo in Florida, the format of which has yet to be decided. Even when those votes have been cast, however, it is likely that nothing will have been decided, leaving the future of the Democratic party not in the hands of voters, but the likes of Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and Democratic National Convention Chair Nancy Pelosi.

The Score:

The race between Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator Hillary Clinton of New York continues to stay close, though at this point in the campaign the odds of Clinton catching up are becoming more and more slim. As of March 20, Barack Obama leads in the popular vote 49.5% to Hillary Clinton's 46.9%. The popular vote has translated into a delegate lead equally as slim with Obama currently having 1618 pledged delegates while Clinton has 1479.

The Super Delegates:

In the “Super Delegate” race, 444 of 795 Super Delegates have pledged their votes, 237 for Clinton and 207 for Obama. Since Super Tuesday, however, Obama has won a total of 43 Super Delegates while Clinton has lost six. Despite all of the media coverage that the impact of Super Delegates has gotten, it would appear as though they won't have much effect after all. The split is about even and most others are holding out to cast their vote for the official frontrunner, so as not to take the power out of the voters' hands. This is also the reason that neither candidate has a chance to collect enough pledged delegates to claim the nomination before the Democratic National Convention.

Upcoming States:

Obama's lead over Clinton might be too much to overcome, but a good place to start would be Pennsylvania. The polls, about a month before their primary will take place, have Hillary up by anywhere between 12 to 20 points. Pennsylvania might be all locked up for her, but it is all about by how much she wins. Anything within 15 points won't help her too much as Obama can make up for it in other contests. Anything within ten points Obama could well make up two weeks later when North Carolina and Indiana hold their primaries. In the coming month, Clinton will have to increase her lead while attempting to stunt the Obama avalanche. Despite Clinton holding an overwhelming lead in the white vote, Obama has done incredibly well in moderate “white” states and the longer he has to campaign in a single state, the more likely he is to do well.

After Pennsylvania, the campaign rolls into North Carolina and Indiana in early May. North Carolina is the last state that holds more than 100 delegates and appears to be leaning towards Senator Obama. Early polls currently show Obama with a single-digit lead but a lot can happen between now and May 6. A big win for Clinton in Pennsylvania would certainly go far in helping her in the northernmost of the Carolinas, but a win simply isn't enough. Clinton will have to win with a double-digit margin in most of the remaining states, especially delegate rich Pennsylvania and North Carolina, if she hopes to catch up and surpass Obama.

Michigan and Florida:

Michigan will indeed be holding a “do-over” primary in June so that their delegates can be seated at the convention. After the Democratic Party stripped Michigan of all of its delegates for moving their primary too early, every candidate but Clinton took their names off of the ballot. This time around, both Clinton and Obama will be listed on the ballot and both will have ample time to campaign in the Wolverine State. Even though it was Clinton who pushed hard for Michigan's votes to be counted, Obama is the real winner; even if he loses, he will do much better than he would have when Michigan held it's primary in January thanks to his ever rising popularity.

Florida is a completely different story. A second primary would cost upwards of $20 million and both the state and the DNC are refusing to pay for it. A mail-in vote primary was voted down by Florida's Democratic Party. A caucus would alienate too many elderly people and shift workers. As noted in the last issue of Scepter, the only feasible options might be to seat Florida's delegates based on the national popular vote or simply split them 50-50.

The Inevitable Solution: